Starlink Has 9 Million Customers and 5.5 Billion People Are Online. Do the Math

Why It Matters

SpaceX’s IPO and potential S&P 500 inclusion could funnel massive passive capital into the stock, while Starlink’s growth promises a transformative, trillion‑dollar internet ecosystem.

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX IPO priced near $150, up ~6% at open.
• Analysts expect S&P 500 inclusion within a year, pending profitability.
• Lockup expirations may trigger orderly share sales, affecting index weight.
• Starlink serves 9 million users; potential market reaches billions.
• Space‑based data centers could reshape global internet infrastructure long term.

Summary

The conversation centered on SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO and the massive growth potential of its Starlink satellite internet service. Dan Kern highlighted the IPO’s opening price near $150, a roughly 6% gain, and discussed the likelihood of the company joining the S&P 500 once profitability thresholds are met, noting that other indexes have already fast‑tracked inclusion. Key points included the mechanics of lock‑up expirations, which could lead to a measured sell‑off and boost SpaceX’s weight in index funds, and the bullish sentiment from investors like Ron Baron who are adding to positions despite existing holdings. Analysts weighed the high price‑to‑sales ratio against the firm’s innovative moat—reusable rockets and a scalable satellite constellation—while acknowledging governance concerns given Elon Musk’s outsized voting power. Kern cited a personal experience of dropped calls on a Boston‑New York train to illustrate the current gaps in terrestrial connectivity, contrasting that with Starlink’s 9 million subscribers against roughly 5.5 billion global internet users. He projected a multi‑trillion‑dollar opportunity if Starlink captures a larger share and eventually supports space‑based data centers, a concept that could alleviate terrestrial data‑center constraints. The discussion underscored that SpaceX remains a high‑conviction, long‑term play with significant upside and volatility. Index inclusion could trigger passive inflows, while the expanding Starlink footprint may redefine global broadband access and create new revenue streams beyond traditional satellite services.

Original Description

SpaceX opened at $150 on Friday. Up another 6 percent Monday. Dan Kern CIO of Nixon Peabody Trust gives the most balanced take we have heard on the stock: the bull case is real and the bear case is also real.

Bull: Space is one of the biggest competitive moats in existence. Reusable rockets driving costs down relentlessly. Starlink has 9 million customers in a world with 5.5 billion internet users. That alone could be a multi-trillion dollar business.

📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/

📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters

📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763

📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow

Chapters

0:00 Post Knicks championship and SpaceX IPO Monday

0:56 SpaceX S&P 500 inclusion: why it is still a year away

2:00 Profitability and seasoning requirements explained

3:07 Lockup structure and orderly selling ramp

3:52 Ron Baron buying more shares in the open market

4:43 Was the opening price of $150 a surprise?

5:04 Why 19 percent first day pop was the sweet spot

5:37 The bear case: price-to-sales and governance

6:23 The bull case: space as a competitive moat

7:03 Starlink: 9 million customers vs 5.5 billion internet users

8:25 Data centers in space: long-term potential

9:08 Elon Musk as LeBron Jordan and Brunson combined

9:44 Gwen Shotwell and the deeper SpaceX bench

#SpaceXIPO #SPCX #DanKern #tastylive #Starlink #SpaceX #InstitutionalInvesting #SP500

tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran.

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request.

tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.

Get expert insight on investment strategy with Dan Kern, Chief Investment Officer at Nixon Peabody. Learn how institutional leaders analyze current market trends today.

In this session, Jermal Chandler and Liz Dierking sit down with Dan Kern to discuss his professional background and his approach to navigating complex financial landscapes. This conversation is designed for investors and finance professionals seeking a grounded perspective on the current economic environment directly from a seasoned CIO.

Beyond the investment strategy analysis, the discussion touches on personal insights, including allegiances to the Celtics and Warriors, and commentary on the New York Knicks Championship Monday. Whether you are looking for high-level financial analysis or an engaging conversation with industry leadership, this interview provides valuable context on how institutional experts think.

Subscribe for weekly market analysis and financial interviews, and comment below to let us know which industry leader you want to see featured next.