The State of Global Private Equity in 10 Minutes with David Rubenstein, Carlyle

Why It Matters

Private equity remains a high‑return asset class, but investors must pivot to AI‑focused deals, active value creation, and new fund structures to sustain performance amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

• AI dominates deal sourcing and valuation considerations across private equity.
• Managers shift from leverage to active value creation for lower returns.
• Emerging sectors—quantum computing, fusion, clean energy—draw fresh private‑equity capital.
• Continuation vehicles and private‑wealth platforms reshape fund structuring and fundraising.
• Private equity still outperforms public markets by 200‑300 basis points.

Summary

David Rubenstein, co‑chair of Carlyle, outlined the current state of global private equity, noting a paradox of ongoing geopolitical tensions—war in Iran, the Russia‑Ukraine conflict, and rising China‑Taiwan frictions—while the U.S. economy and IPO market remain robust.

He emphasized that artificial intelligence now dominates deal sourcing, with investors scrutinizing every target for AI impact. With return expectations sliding from 20% to mid‑teens, firms are forced to generate operational value rather than rely solely on leverage. Emerging themes such as quantum computing, fusion energy and clean‑energy initiatives are also attracting capital.

Rubenstein highlighted that private‑equity returns have outperformed public markets by 200‑300 basis points over decades, stating, “private equity gets money because we deliver higher returns.” He also pointed to the rise of continuation vehicles and the growing share of capital—15‑25%—coming from private‑wealth platforms.

The shift toward active value creation, new technology bets, and innovative fund structures suggests investors must adapt strategies, while the sector’s historical outperformance continues to make it a compelling asset class despite macro uncertainty.

Original Description

At SuperReturn International 2026, we were joined by private equity legend David Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman, Carlyle, to discuss what he calls a “tale of two cities macro backdrop": ongoing and potential conflicts (Iran, Russia-Ukraine, and rising China-Taiwan tensions) alongside a resilient U.S. and global economy marked by record-setting IPOs, active dealmaking, manageable inflation, and solid GDP growth. Watch the interview to learn what a several decades of private equity experience does to your view of the current market landscape, how AI AI is dominating investment focus, influencing IPO participation and underwriting new deal sourcing and the need to drive value through EBIDTA growth.

00:00 Welcome to SuperReturn

00:10 Macro Tale of Two Cities

01:29 AI Driving Dealmaking

02:00 Value Creation Over Leverage

02:44 Next Frontiers Quantum Fusion

03:24 Energy Transition and Carbon

04:31 New Structures Continuation Vehicles

05:17 Why SuperReturn Matters

06:35 Private Wealth as Capital Source

07:46 Why Private Equity Outperforms

08:37 Closing Thanks