Advisor Perspectives — dshort (charts/econ & markets incl. rates)

The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production

Industrial production rose 0.7% in January, outpacing the 0.4% forecast, and posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year gain. Utilities output surged 2.1% month‑over‑month, while mining slipped 0.2% and manufacturing climbed 0.6%. The index’s current level is at or below the start‑of‑recession threshold for 10 of the 18 recessions since 1919, underscoring its role as a key recession gauge. This metric is one of the four primary indicators the NBER committee monitors when dating business cycles.