Barking Up the Wrong Tree

4 Secrets to Smarter Thinking

Philip Tetlock’s superforecasting research showed that most experts perform no better than chance, while a small group of ordinary people consistently out‑predicted them. The article distills four actionable habits—quantify predictions, tighten questions, rely on base‑rate data, and apply the Fermi method—to improve personal and professional decision‑making. These techniques can be learned in under an hour and produce measurable gains in forecast accuracy. By logging outcomes and conducting post‑mortems, individuals turn intuition into a repeatable skill set.