Barking Up the Wrong Tree

Barking Up the Wrong Tree

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Science-based insights on decision-making, behavior, and leadership.

4 Secrets to Smarter Thinking
NewsMar 2, 2026

4 Secrets to Smarter Thinking

Philip Tetlock’s superforecasting research showed that most experts perform no better than chance, while a small group of ordinary people consistently out‑predicted them. The article distills four actionable habits—quantify predictions, tighten questions, rely on base‑rate data, and apply the Fermi...

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