News•Mar 9, 2026
How $4/Gallon Gas Could Take the Economy From a Nearly Complete Stall Into Outright Recession
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is already teetering on the edge of recession, with key NBER metrics—employment, real personal income, manufacturing sales, and industrial production—stagnating throughout 2025. Recent data show real retail sales slipping 0.3% in January and job growth barely above 0.1% YoY, echoing patterns that historically precede recessions. Consequently, a $4‑gallon benchmark could be the catalyst that pushes these borderline indicators into recessionary territory.
By Bonddad Blog
News•Mar 6, 2026
February Jobs Report: Main Street Lays an Egg
February’s jobs report showed a net loss of 92,000 positions, with the private sector shedding 86,000 jobs and government payrolls down 6,000. The headline unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while the broader U6 underemployment measure fell slightly to 7.9%....
By Bonddad Blog
News•Mar 5, 2026
“New Regime” Of Lower Jobless Claims Continues - a Good Sign (but for Geopolitical Idiocy)
Weekly jobless claims data showed initial filings unchanged at 213,000, while the four‑week moving average slipped to 215,750. Year‑over‑year, initial claims fell 4.9% and the moving‑average declined 4.7%, signaling a continued “new regime” of lower claims that has persisted for...
By Bonddad Blog