March Existing Home Sales Demonstrate a New Equilibrium in the Housing Market
Existing home sales slipped 3.6% in March to an annualized 3.98 million, staying within the three‑year range of 3.85‑4.35 million units. Prices rose only 1.4% year‑over‑year, mirroring flat trends in the FHFA and Case‑Shiller indexes. Inventory crept up 3% YoY but remains roughly 20% below pre‑COVID levels, indicating a modest supply increase. The data suggest the market has settled into a post‑COVID equilibrium, though a chronic housing shortage persists.
Very Low Jobless Claims Continue
Jobless claims remained exceptionally low, with initial filings edging up 16,000 to 219,000 and the four‑week moving average reaching 209,500. Continuing claims dropped sharply to 1.794 million, the lowest level in two years. Year‑over‑year figures showed a 1.8% decline in initial...
FHFA and Case Shiller Repeat Sales Indexes Continue to Show Further Disinflation
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and Case‑Shiller repeat‑sales indexes reported modest month‑over‑month gains—0.1% and 0.2% respectively—for the three‑month period ending January. More striking is the year‑over‑year slowdown, with the FHFA index up only 1.6% and the Case‑Shiller index up...
Construction Spending in January Declined, Manufacturing Construction Tanked; but the AI Data Center Boom Continued
January’s construction spending report, released three weeks late due to the lingering effects of the 2023 government shutdown, showed a modest overall decline of 0.3% in nominal terms. Residential construction slipped 0.8%, while manufacturing construction fell sharply by 2%, marking...
How $4/Gallon Gas Could Take the Economy From a Nearly Complete Stall Into Outright Recession
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is...
February Jobs Report: Main Street Lays an Egg
February’s jobs report showed a net loss of 92,000 positions, with the private sector shedding 86,000 jobs and government payrolls down 6,000. The headline unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while the broader U6 underemployment measure fell slightly to 7.9%....
“New Regime” Of Lower Jobless Claims Continues - a Good Sign (but for Geopolitical Idiocy)
Weekly jobless claims data showed initial filings unchanged at 213,000, while the four‑week moving average slipped to 215,750. Year‑over‑year, initial claims fell 4.9% and the moving‑average declined 4.7%, signaling a continued “new regime” of lower claims that has persisted for...