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CalculatedRisk Newsletter (Substack)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter (Substack)

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Bill McBride’s ad‑free, frequently updated real‑estate and macro newsletter—successor complement to the Calculated Risk blog.

Recent Posts

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in January
News•Feb 26, 2026

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in January

Freddie Mac reported its single‑family serious delinquency rate rose to 0.60% in January, a marginal increase from December’s 0.59% and slightly below the 0.61% recorded a year earlier. Fannie Mae’s comparable rate edged up to 0.59% from 0.58% in December, also modestly higher than the 0.57% seen in January 2025. Both GSEs note that the current levels sit near pre‑pandemic lows, far beneath the peaks of over 4% for Freddie and 5.5% for Fannie during the 2010 housing bust and the 2020 pandemic surge. Vintage analysis shows older loan cohorts from the 2004‑2008 bubble period still carry the highest delinquency percentages.

By CalculatedRisk Newsletter (Substack)
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak
News•Feb 25, 2026

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak

The December Case‑Shiller report shows nominal house prices reaching fresh all‑time highs, while inflation‑adjusted (real) values sit slightly below their 2022 peak—2.2% for the national index and 2.4% for the composite 20. Despite the recent dip, real prices remain 10.3%...

By CalculatedRisk Newsletter (Substack)
Architecture "Billings Remain Soft to Start 2026"
News•Feb 19, 2026

Architecture "Billings Remain Soft to Start 2026"

The January 2026 Architecture Billings Index (ABI) fell to 43.8, marking a contraction for the 37th month out of the last 40 and signaling reduced demand for architects across most regions and sectors, except a flat reading in the South....

By CalculatedRisk Newsletter (Substack)
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025
News•Feb 12, 2026

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage delinquency rates rose to 4.26% in Q4 2025, up 27 basis points from the prior quarter and 28 basis points year‑over‑year. All major loan types—Conventional, FHA, and VA—saw higher delinquencies, with FHA loans...

By CalculatedRisk Newsletter (Substack)