Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for Mid-April 2026
The housing market entering mid‑April 2026 shows months‑of‑supply above pre‑pandemic levels while sales remain flat at 2025 volumes—the lowest annual pace since 1995. Prices are feeling downward pressure, especially where inventory is high, but widespread distressed sales are unlikely because most owners hold substantial equity and benefit from historically low mortgage rates. The Case‑Shiller National Index rose 0.9% year‑over‑year in January and posted a 0.23% month‑over‑month gain, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase after a five‑month decline. Meanwhile, higher mortgage rates driven by geopolitical tensions have curbed purchase‑mortgage applications year‑over‑year.
FHFA’s Q4 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
The FHFA’s Q4 2025 National Mortgage Database shows a sharp shift in mortgage rate distribution. Loans under 4 % fell from a 65.1 % peak in Q1 2022 to 50.6 % today, while loans above 6 % rose from 7.3 % to 21.9 % over the same period....
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in February
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported that single‑family serious delinquency rates ticked higher in February, with Freddie Mac at 0.61% and Fannie Mae at 0.60%, each up 0.01 percentage point from January. Both metrics are essentially flat year‑over‑year and sit close to pre‑pandemic...
Lawler: Update on GSEs
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased agency MBS holdings by about $11.3 billion in February, the smallest rise since September 2025 and well below the $15.5 billion jump in January. The increase falls short of the White House’s January pledge for the...
Lawler: Some Observations on the February Existing Home Sales Release
The National Association of Realtors moved its existing‑home‑sales release about ten days earlier, a change that Tom Lawler says will likely generate larger-than‑usual revisions. January’s non‑seasonally adjusted sales were revised up by 5,000 units, pushing the SAAR to 4.02 million from...
Architecture Billings Declined Slightly in February
The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index (ABI) slipped to 49.4 in February 2026, remaining just below the 50‑point breakeven that separates growth from contraction. The score rose from 43.8 in January but still marks the 38th month of...
The Gaping Hole in the Housing Market
The existing‑home market is entrenched in a deep recession, contrary to recent optimistic forecasts. While lower mortgage rates have eased affordability pressures, they address only a fraction of the sales slowdown. Persistent inventory shortages and muted buyer confidence continue to...
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in January
Freddie Mac reported its single‑family serious delinquency rate rose to 0.60% in January, a marginal increase from December’s 0.59% and slightly below the 0.61% recorded a year earlier. Fannie Mae’s comparable rate edged up to 0.59% from 0.58% in December,...
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak
The December Case‑Shiller report shows nominal house prices reaching fresh all‑time highs, while inflation‑adjusted (real) values sit slightly below their 2022 peak—2.2% for the national index and 2.4% for the composite 20. Despite the recent dip, real prices remain 10.3%...
Architecture "Billings Remain Soft to Start 2026"
The January 2026 Architecture Billings Index (ABI) fell to 43.8, marking a contraction for the 37th month out of the last 40 and signaling reduced demand for architects across most regions and sectors, except a flat reading in the South....
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage delinquency rates rose to 4.26% in Q4 2025, up 27 basis points from the prior quarter and 28 basis points year‑over‑year. All major loan types—Conventional, FHA, and VA—saw higher delinquencies, with FHA loans...