Decoding the Warsh Testimony: What the Next Fed Chair Actually Said
Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee testimony signals a sweeping Fed regime change. He blames the 2020 “FAIT” framework shift for today’s 25‑30% price surge and proposes a new inflation target, trimmed‑mean data, and the end of forward guidance. Warsh also calls for coordinated balance‑sheet reductions with the Treasury, a managed dollar decline, and acknowledges stablecoins as part of the dollar ecosystem. The remarks suggest a pivot toward AI‑driven productivity and a more equitable transmission of monetary policy.
Cross-Border Flows, the Dollar Devaluation, and the Global Trade Rebalancing
Capital Flows researcher argues that modern money is created primarily through bank credit, not central‑bank printing, and that every financial asset is simultaneously a liability. He identifies two universal risks—duration risk from inflation and credit risk from growth—that price all...
Credit Cycle Playbook: Stagflation vs Melt Up
The article argues that the current geopolitical shock is not a side story but the catalyst exposing the next phase of the global credit cycle. Decades of cross‑border liquidity injections have swollen sovereign balance sheets, and those flows are now...
Top Stocks in Each Sector Driving Information Flow
The Capital Flows livestream identified the S&P 500 stocks that have generated the strongest fundamental attribution over the past three months, revealing where informed capital is positioning itself. AI‑related themes dominate, with data‑center REIT EQIX up 30% and utilities tied...
Capital Flows Livestream: CPI, Iran - Will the VIX Blow Out?
Capital Flows is launching a livestream that spotlights four market themes it believes are under‑priced. The discussion will cover the WTI‑Brent spread, now at its widest since 2008, and record‑high crude options open interest, which could amplify tail risk. It...
Geopolitical Endgame and Stagflation
Capital Flows' new report warns that post‑COVID markets have entered a high‑volatility macro regime driven by intensifying U.S.–China geopolitical friction. The analysis links the recent S&P 500 pullback to broader risk flows and explains why the dollar now mirrors these dynamics....
The Trade Everyone Got Wrong (And What Comes Next)
The author highlights a rapid crude oil rally from $70 to $120 per barrel, which shattered the market’s prevailing rate‑cut consensus in just a week. Simultaneously, short‑term rates shifted dramatically—SONIA jumped 45 basis points and EURIBOR flipped from pricing cuts...
Geopolitical Risk Is Crashing Equities
The article warns that rising geopolitical risk, highlighted by President Trump’s actions and a surge in crude oil prices, is driving equities lower. Higher oil prices are pushing the VIX up and causing a bear‑steepening of the yield curve, signaling...
Geopolitical Risk and AI Risk Converging
The Capital Flows Research team notes that geopolitical instability and AI safety concerns are increasingly overlapping, creating a compounded risk environment. The analyst introduced a new AI-driven mapping tool and released a suite of TradingView indicators to monitor these dynamics....
The Economy Is Splitting in Two: How to Trade the Rotation
The episode explains how the U.S. economy is diverging into two distinct regimes—one of robust growth and inflation resilience, the other of slowing activity and tighter monetary policy—and how this split is driving market rotations. It outlines the macro drivers...