Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity climbed to a record $193.2 trillion last week, driven primarily by Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions rather than organic market growth. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China curtailed domestic liquidity, contributing to a weaker short‑term money market (SMB) environment. Risk appetite remains elevated, but capital is gradually rotating from crowded emerging‑market assets toward developed‑market opportunities, especially in the United States. The shift underscores a nuanced liquidity landscape where official support masks underlying fragility.
Are We Still ‘Late’ Cycle? Crypto, Bonds, and the US$600bn Fed Pivot
Crypto prices surged in recent weeks, driven largely by a quiet $600 bn liquidity injection from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury that began in October. The authors remain bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum as long‑term inflation hedges, but note that...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity rose to $190.8 trillion last week, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger collateral valuations. Although the total amount marks a peak for the current cycle, growth is decelerating, signaling that liquidity may have topped out. Central bank...
ATOMIQ LEVEL Live Featuring Michael Howell with Chris J Snook
In this episode of Atomic Level, host Chris Snook interviews veteran finance professional Michael Howell, author of *Capital Wars*. Howell recounts his career from the early 1980s at Salomon Brothers during the UK “Big Bang,” through the fallout at Barings,...
Could China Drive Oil to US$250/ Bbl?
The piece argues that monetary dynamics, not just geopolitics, drive oil prices, citing the 1973 Arab‑Israeli embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution as reactions to a weakening US dollar. It links those historic spikes to the collapse of Bretton Woods...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity climbed to US$190.6 trillion last week, spurred by a dip in market volatility and a higher collateral multiplier. The rise was partially offset by weaker central‑bank funding and a stronger US dollar, putting pressure on the shadow monetary base....
Global Liquidity And ‘Treasury QE’: Why the Incoming Warsh Fed Is No Longer in Full Control
The Federal Reserve’s traditional role as the chief driver of U.S. growth is waning as the Treasury reclaims liquidity management. Starting in 2025, a covert revision of the 1951 Fed‑Treasury Accord allows the Treasury to conduct its own quantitative easing...
The Ticking Clock
The article outlines how major asset classes perform across the Global Liquidity cycle. Equities tend to rise when liquidity expands, while cash dominates during contractions. Commodities typically peak in the late‑cycle, and long‑term bonds excel at the trough. The piece...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity edged higher to $188.1 trillion, buoyed by a weaker dollar, Federal Reserve balance‑sheet expansion, and lower bond‑market volatility. The Shadow Monetary Base also rose, but its growth is muted as the Bank of Japan’s quantitative tightening, tepid ECB/BoE support,...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity has peaked and is now declining as base effects fade. Momentum is weakening despite support from the People’s Bank of China and the Federal Reserve. A stronger US dollar, heightened bond volatility, and reduced liquidity from the Bank...
Bond Markets Point The Way
The article argues that the Iran conflict, while unsettling, is less damaging to the real global economy than initially feared. However, it is accelerating a pre‑existing decline in global liquidity that began earlier this year. Higher oil prices and rising...
Risks Of Another Financial Crisis
The note outlines how extreme indebtedness and shrinking global liquidity create a fragile financial system, emphasizing the circular link between debt and liquidity. It focuses on the debt‑maturity cycle as a primary transmission mechanism for crises, arguing that risks are...
Could Fed Liquidity Plunge By Half?
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity has fallen for a fourth straight week, reaching approximately $187.9 trillion. The decline is driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, weaker collateral values, and a sharp rise in bond‑market volatility. While the People’s Bank of China continues to provide...
The Liquidity Tide Goes Out
In a March 29, 2026 X Spaces interview hosted by George Noble, Michael Howell reaffirmed that the global liquidity cycle peaked in early 2026 and is now losing momentum. Trackers show total global liquidity around US$188 trillion, but growth has slowed as central banks...