The Ticking Clock
The article outlines how major asset classes perform across the Global Liquidity cycle. Equities tend to rise when liquidity expands, while cash dominates during contractions. Commodities typically peak in the late‑cycle, and long‑term bonds excel at the trough. The piece builds on a prior primer about bond markets, offering a sector‑rotation framework for investors.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity edged higher to $188.1 trillion, buoyed by a weaker dollar, Federal Reserve balance‑sheet expansion, and lower bond‑market volatility. The Shadow Monetary Base also rose, but its growth is muted as the Bank of Japan’s quantitative tightening, tepid ECB/BoE support,...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity has peaked and is now declining as base effects fade. Momentum is weakening despite support from the People’s Bank of China and the Federal Reserve. A stronger US dollar, heightened bond volatility, and reduced liquidity from the Bank...
Bond Markets Point The Way
The article argues that the Iran conflict, while unsettling, is less damaging to the real global economy than initially feared. However, it is accelerating a pre‑existing decline in global liquidity that began earlier this year. Higher oil prices and rising...
Risks Of Another Financial Crisis
The note outlines how extreme indebtedness and shrinking global liquidity create a fragile financial system, emphasizing the circular link between debt and liquidity. It focuses on the debt‑maturity cycle as a primary transmission mechanism for crises, arguing that risks are...
Could Fed Liquidity Plunge By Half?
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity has fallen for a fourth straight week, reaching approximately $187.9 trillion. The decline is driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, weaker collateral values, and a sharp rise in bond‑market volatility. While the People’s Bank of China continues to provide...
The Liquidity Tide Goes Out
In a March 29, 2026 X Spaces interview hosted by George Noble, Michael Howell reaffirmed that the global liquidity cycle peaked in early 2026 and is now losing momentum. Trackers show total global liquidity around US$188 trillion, but growth has slowed as central banks...
The Dire Straits: Liquidity Tide Goes Out
The analysts forecast the S&P 500 could slip to around 5,500 within the next 12 months, implying a 20‑25% correction. A deeper, systemic issue is the ongoing decline in global liquidity, which is reflected in both broad and market‑specific liquidity indices....
The Four Horsemen of The Liquidity Apocalypse
The note updates the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) using a statistical model calibrated on historical data, highlighting a deteriorating liquidity environment. It stresses that the GLI was already weakening due to capital flowing into the real economy, and the Iran...
The Elephant In The Room
Global liquidity, which peaked in the fall, is now on a downward trajectory, pushing markets into a risk‑off stance. Iranian geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices have amplified investor anxiety, but the liquidity slowdown was already evident. Despite aggressive central‑bank...
Oil At US$250/Bbl?
Escalating Gulf tensions have reignited a sharp rally in oil, with some analysts speculating prices could approach $250 per barrel. The piece ties this surge to a concurrent rise in gold, arguing that the gold‑oil ratio serves as a key...
The Liquidity Tide Is Turning: Warning for Risk Assets
The episode explains how a shift in global liquidity, driven by the Federal Reserve’s move toward quantitative tightening, is ending the era of easy money and causing risk assets like Bitcoin and high‑growth tech stocks to falter. It highlights the...