How I Think About Investing
The author argues that successful investing hinges on viewing stocks as ownership in businesses and applying simple, cash‑flow‑focused valuation methods such as EV/EBIT and EV/Owner’s Earnings. He warns against short‑term market noise, overtrading, and speculative growth premiums, advocating for patience, concentration, and a preference for smaller, under‑researched companies when possible. While acknowledging that most individuals lack the time and discipline for deep analysis, he recommends low‑cost index funds as a rational default. This mindset aligns capital allocation with intrinsic business value rather than price fluctuations.
Lou Simpson: The Investor Who Ran GEICO's Portfolio and Quietly Outperformed for Decades
Lou Simpson managed GEICO’s investment portfolio from 1979 to 2010, steering a markedly higher equity allocation than typical insurers. By concentrating 35‑45% of the float in a handful of high‑quality stocks—often just 8‑15 holdings—he generated a 20.3% compound annual return,...
How I Actually Decide to Put Real Money Into an Investment
The author outlines an eight‑step framework for turning investment ideas into real capital allocations, emphasizing disciplined position sizing over mere idea generation. Early screening focuses on low EV/EBIT, price‑to‑book and cash‑flow metrics, while quick‑kill criteria weed out unclear or risky...
MachTen: A Mispriced Rural Fiber Infrastructure Play
MachTen Inc. (OTC:MACT) recently acquired AT&T’s wireline assets in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, expanding its network by thousands of miles. The company is executing a $100 million fiber build‑out in northern Michigan, with roughly 75% of the cost covered by federal subsidies...
Start Here: Welcome to Clayton Capital Insights
Clayton Capital Insights, a Substack run by value investor Nick Clayton, showcases a concentrated, margin‑of‑safety approach that generated a 41% return in 2025. The strategy typically holds 7‑15 high‑conviction positions, emphasizing strong balance sheets, disciplined position sizing, and capital allocation...
Forge Insurance Update: A Small P&C Insurer Reaches the Inflection Point
Forge Insurance, a nano‑cap property‑and‑casualty carrier focused on commercial auto, reported 2025 results that signal a decisive inflection point. Net premiums earned jumped 41% to $31.1 million and underwriting income turned positive at $2.4 million after a loss the prior year. Net...
Heritage Global: A Distressed Asset Platform Trading at 5x EV/EBIT and Near Liquidation Value
Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ:HGBL) operates a multi‑segment distressed‑asset platform that trades at less than 70% of book value and roughly 5.5 × EV/EBIT, placing it near liquidation pricing. The San Diego‑based firm has posted profits every year since 2018 and exhibits counter‑cyclical...
How to Properly Size Investment Positions
The article explains how investors can boost risk‑adjusted returns by properly sizing positions rather than merely finding ideas. It introduces a simple upside‑to‑downside framework, illustrates it with PayPal and Perimeter Solutions, and ties the ratio to a practical allocation rule...