OPEC+ Data Deck (June 2026)
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, making this the first OPEC+ data deck without the UAE. In May, quota‑participating OPEC+ crude production rose 240 kbpd to 24,866 kbpd, reflecting the UAE’s exit, while total OPEC+ output fell an additional 2 million barrels per day. Iran’s output is collapsing, down roughly 28% from February 2026 levels due to a U.S. blockade, with further declines expected. The data deck highlights these shifts and their implications for global oil supply.
[FREE] A Beginner’s Guide to Reopening the Strait
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed as diplomatic talks stall, leaving roughly 200 stranded tankers with an estimated 160 million barrels of stockpiled oil. Iran has promised to restore pre‑war shipping levels within 30 days of any cease‑fire memorandum, but de‑mining could...
Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W22)
Crude prices slipped about $11.50 per barrel this week, leaving Brent near $92 as optimism over a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz peaked at its highest since mid‑April. May 2026 recorded the steepest monthly price decline since March...
Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W20)
Brent crude closed just under $110 a barrel, gaining about $8 on the week as optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough faded. US‑Iran nuclear talks stalled, and President Trump’s China visit produced no tangible progress on Hormuz tensions. Calendar spreads bottomed...
OPEC+ Data Deck (May 2026)
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, 2026, making this the final OPEC+ Data Deck that includes its production figures. In April, OPEC+ quota‑participating crude output fell 1,625 kbpd to 26,558 kbpd, marking a 35‑year low for the...
Context Call: May 2026 (Video)
In this second Context Call, the host reviews the ongoing Hormuz Strait closure and its ripple effects on the global oil market, noting a recent flare‑up of violence but no immediate shift in supply fundamentals. Brent crude remains anchored around...
Global Oil Data Deck (April 2026)
The April 2026 Global Oil Data Deck shows the liquids market tightening to its least oversupplied level since June 2025. Ongoing hostilities in the Iran War have eliminated roughly 1 billion barrels of expected Middle Eastern production, while global oil inventories sit near...
OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2026)
The latest OPEC+ Data Deck reveals a March production drop of 7,587 kbpd, bringing quota‑participating output to 28,312 kbpd – the second‑largest monthly decline on record and the lowest level for the expanded group since the 1990 Desert Storm period. The fall...
Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W15)
Oil prices plunged more than $14 per barrel after the Iran‑Israel ceasefire announcement, marking the steepest weekly drop since the conflict began. Brent prompt futures settled near $97/bbl while Dated Brent spot hovered around $130 after hitting a record $144.46....
North American Oil Data Deck (April 2026)
The April 2026 edition of the North American Oil Data Deck, a 47‑page subscription‑only report, details upstream and downstream activity across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The deck shows petroleum liquids output slipped more than 1 MMbpd month‑over‑month, pulling total production...
The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War
President Trump used his latest address to reaffirm that the United States is on track to achieve its military objectives in Iran within a few weeks, signaling a longer‑than‑expected conflict. He repeated earlier claims that the war’s energy‑price impact is...
Context Call: March 2026
In this episode, the host analyzes the immediate oil market impact of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports about 20 million barrels per day—roughly one‑fifth of global supply. He explains that this volume creates a market "hole"...
REMINDER: Context Call Tomorrow
Commodity Context is hosting an exclusive live call on Thursday, March 26, 2026 for paid members, focusing on the current oil market and the impacts of the Iran war. The one‑hour session runs from 8:00‑9:00 am MT (10:00‑11:00 am ET, 2:00‑3:00 pm GMT)...
Global Oil Data Deck (March 2026)
Commodity Context released its March 2026 Global Oil Data Deck, highlighting the profound impact of the Iran‑War‑driven Hormuz stoppage on oil balances. Confirmed production shut‑ins are set to push the market into its largest deficit on record through March, while...
North American Oil Data Deck (March 2026)
The March 2026 edition of the North American Oil Data Deck, a subscription‑only, 47‑page visual report, shows petroleum liquids output falling 353 kbpd month‑over‑month to 31,075 kbpd, the lowest level since August. U.S. crude production slipped for a second straight month, while Canada...