CropGPT Soft Commodity Pricing

Cocoa’s Rebound Still Sits Inside a Bear Market

ICE May cocoa futures surged nearly 12% this week, climbing from $2,888 to $3,230 per tonne, marking one of the sharpest recoveries after a prolonged liquidation phase. The rally was driven primarily by short‑covering and logistical disruptions rather than fundamental scarcity, as freight costs and port delays in West Africa tightened physical flows. Meanwhile, global cocoa production is projected to rise about 8% year‑on‑year, pushing inventories toward a surplus for the first time in four years. Demand, however, is weakening, with European grind volumes down 8.3% YoY and major processors reporting significant sales declines.