
Russian oil drilling contracted 3.4% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2021, with a sharp 10% drop in the second half of the year. The slowdown is attributed to a weaker Urals crude price and a stronger ruble, which together eroded the economics of new wells. To quantify this effect, the author revived a proprietary marginal well model that translates macro variables into a single profitability metric. The analysis suggests that deteriorating wellhead economics are now a primary driver of reduced upstream investment in Russia.

China has stepped in to purchase Russian crude that India declined, pushing Russian oil exports to their highest levels in two years. The shift has concentrated buying power among a few Asian importers, driving the Urals‑grade discount to a multi‑year...

The episode examines the sharp decline in Russian oil and gas drilling in the second half of 2025, with total meters drilled falling 3.4% year‑over‑year and the share of horizontal wells dropping from 67.8% to 59.3%. It links the slowdown...