Post-Iran Logistics – In Pipes We Trust
The 2026 Iran crisis triggered a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, turning a theoretical chokepoint risk into an immediate reality. With roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies previously transiting the strait, market participants now see a heightened likelihood of future disruptions. Buyers and sellers are revising scenario analyses to assign greater probability to such events and are placing premium value on routes that avoid Hormuz and the Malacca Strait. The note highlights a little‑known side project linked to the Power of Siberia‑2 gas contract that could reroute Russian oil to China via overland corridors.
Assessing Russia’s Current Oil Export Capacity
Ukrainian drones have intensified a campaign against Russia’s key oil export terminals, executing at least 11 attacks between March 1 and mid‑April 2026. The strikes hit Primorsk, Ust‑Luga and Novorossiysk—ports that together move roughly 3.4 million barrels per day, nearly half of Russia’s...
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - March, 2026
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz prompted a limited easing of sanctions on Russian crude, sparking a sharp surge in Urals oil prices. At the same time, Russia’s oil export capacity is being hampered by a series of...
Vostok Oil – Part 1: Logistical, Administrative Hurdles
Rosneft’s Vostok Oil, envisioned as Russia’s flagship greenfield oil development, is now years behind its original timeline. The project faces significant logistical bottlenecks, from remote Siberian terrain to inadequate transport infrastructure, and tangled administrative approvals that stall progress. Despite these...
Is the Iran Crisis a Game-Changer for Russian Gas?
The article examines how the escalating Iran crisis could reshape Russia’s gas exports to Europe, a market where Russia still accounts for roughly 40% of supply. It argues that the EU’s recent pivot toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) has swapped...
Economic Signals – New Well Returns Rebound
The latest analysis shows new-well returns in Russia rebounding after a sharp dip, driven by the Iran crisis that has more than doubled Russian oil prices while the ruble weakens. Using the Marginal Well Model, the author demonstrates that the...
Russian Oil After Onset of Iran Crisis – Supply Potential
The Iran‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz has eliminated roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude from world markets. Saudi Arabia’s new 5‑7 mmbpd East‑West bypass pipeline eases pressure but leaves a sizable supply gap. Russia, sitting on idle production...
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - February, 2026
The February 2026 edition of Russian Oil & Gas Monthly highlights a sudden escalation in Middle‑East tensions, specifically the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. The conflict, which unfolded at the end of February, disrupted global...
Marginal Well Models and Russia's Weak Wellhead Economics
Russian oil drilling contracted 3.4% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2021, with a sharp 10% drop in the second half of the year. The slowdown is attributed to a weaker Urals crude price and a stronger ruble, which...
China Boosts Russian Oil Purchases – Oligopsony Looms
China has stepped in to purchase Russian crude that India declined, pushing Russian oil exports to their highest levels in two years. The shift has concentrated buying power among a few Asian importers, driving the Urals‑grade discount to a multi‑year...
Russian Drilling Falls in 2H25 – What Does It Mean?
The episode examines the sharp decline in Russian oil and gas drilling in the second half of 2025, with total meters drilled falling 3.4% year‑over‑year and the share of horizontal wells dropping from 67.8% to 59.3%. It links the slowdown...