
Venezuela’s heavy‑oil sector faces a pivotal shift as its aging upgrader fleet limits production capacity. Export‑ready crude now depends on diluent‑blending, creating a new logistical bottleneck. The country must decide between securing diluent supplies, expanding blending operations, or investing in modern upgraders. Each path will shape the volume and quality of heavy crude flowing to global markets.

A potential disruption of the Hormuz Strait could cause a sharp rise in gasoline prices just as the U.S. enters its primary driving season. At the same time, lingering tariff uncertainties and a recent slide in crude oil prices are...