A Reality Check on Relative Home Prices
Kevin Erdmann’s latest analysis separates U.S. home‑price appreciation into three forces—cyclical trends, credit conditions, and supply constraints—using a price‑to‑income framework that covers both large metros and smaller markets. His findings show that since the mid‑2000s, supply shortages have become the dominant driver, pushing lot premiums in fast‑growing cities into six‑figure ranges, while credit tightening mainly depresses low‑tier values without affecting rents. The Erdmann Housing Tracker’s supply component now accounts for the bulk of price gains, diverging from the Case‑Shiller index, which overstates values because it tracks existing homes.
Apartments in the Midwest
The author compares single‑family and multi‑family housing completions in the Midwest and Northeast, arguing that the Northeast’s high rents stem from insufficient housing supply rather than excess demand. While the Midwest permits more single‑family homes, both regions now face tight...
No, Builders Don't Pull Back Until Rents Inflate, Part 2
The piece explains how housing shortages cause low‑tier rents to outpace high‑tier rents, so when new units are added the price drop is steeper at the bottom of the market. Adding high‑end homes mainly depresses rents of older, cheaper properties...
Hovnanian 1Q 2026 Details
Hovnanian Enterprises reported mixed results in its Q1 2026 10‑Q, showing a modest revenue decline and a widening net loss. Home deliveries fell, yet the company’s backlog grew slightly, indicating lingering demand. Higher mortgage rates pressured margins, but the firm...
More on the Supply of Rental Homes
The analysis notes that U.S. new home construction has risen above 1.6 million units annually, yet renter household formation remains constrained by a lingering 15 million‑unit shortage. Harvard’s Joint Center projects roughly 600,000 new households each year for the next decade, far...
February 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
Core CPI excluding shelter has hovered near a 2% annual rate for almost four years, while rent inflation is finally showing signs of moderation. The article argues that continued new home construction is essential to keep rent growth in check....
January 2026 Residential Construction
January 2026 residential construction data released by Kevin Erdmann confirms the market remains capacity‑constrained. New permits and starts fell short of projected demand, highlighting persistent labor shortages and material bottlenecks. Builder confidence dipped as inventory levels failed to keep pace with buyer...
The St. Louis Fed Reminding Me I Can Still Be Surprised
The St. Louis Fed’s recent blog warns that housing prices have outpaced wages, citing zoning, low mortgage rates, credit cycles, and investor demand as drivers. The author argues the analysis overlooks the 2008 mortgage‑credit crackdown, which sharply reduced buyer demand...
Labor Force Trends: Per-Adult Vs. Per Capita
The piece highlights how per‑adult metrics expose demographic shifts that per‑capita figures hide, especially in housing and labor. Since the 2008 crisis, homes per adult have risen sharply as families have fewer children, while homes per capita appear flat. The...
Hovnanian 1Q 2026 Earnings
Hovnanian Enterprises reported its first‑quarter 2026 earnings, delivering modest revenue growth and an earnings‑per‑share beat despite a softening housing market. Net income rose to $85 million, up 6% year‑over‑year, while home sales volumes slipped 3% as buyers delayed purchases. The company...
January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker
The Erdmann Housing Tracker notes that core inflation—excluding rent—has now been tracking a 2% trend for roughly three and a half years. This prolonged alignment suggests price pressures are stabilizing outside the rental sector. The brief also hints at deeper...
December 2025 Residential Construction
The latest Census estimates show residential construction activity for December 2025 edging forward, but the recovery remains sluggish. Analyst Kevin Erdmann highlights that the persistent supply shortage outweighs mortgage‑rate concerns in shaping short‑term building trends. He links today’s modest gains...
Do You Ever Wonder? Podcast
Kevin Erdmann appeared on Mike Haltman's "Do You Ever Wonder?" podcast to discuss the fundamentals of the 21st‑century housing market. In under an hour, he broke down key trends such as urbanization, affordability pressures, and the rise of data‑driven property...
Federal YIMBYs?
The House approved the Housing for the 21st Century Act, a federal effort to ease regulations on manufactured‑home financing, HUD programs, and construction lending for small builders. The legislation also grants regulatory relief to local banks, aiming to revive mortgage...