China's PPI Rebound Is Cost-Pushed, Not Demand-Led: Iran Energy Shock, Weak Pass-Through and China-EU Trade
China’s producer‑price index (PPI) turned positive in March 2026 and climbed to 2.8% in April, but the rebound is driven mainly by upstream cost pressures rather than revived domestic demand. The Iran‑war energy shock has lifted global oil, gas and petrochemical prices, feeding higher upstream PPI while downstream firms struggle to pass costs on. China’s retail sales grew only 0.2% YoY in April and fixed‑asset investment fell 1.6% in the Jan‑Apr period, keeping downstream pricing power muted. Meanwhile, Europe’s rising production costs have amplified China’s export advantage to the EU, sustaining a trade tilt despite weak internal demand.
China’s Anti-Dumping Investigation on Pork Imports From Europe: A Calibrated Retaliation
China has launched an anti‑dumping investigation into EU pork, focusing on Spanish offal, as a calibrated retaliation for the EU’s anti‑subsidy probe into Chinese electric vehicles. The move is designed to pressure Spain, a pivotal EU Council vote‑caster, by exploiting...
Australia: Neutral Fiscal Impulse with Stable Structural Deficit Will Keep RBA Vigilant on Inflation Risks
Australia’s 2026‑27 federal budget is essentially neutral, with the underlying cash balance holding steady at –1.0% of GDP and the structural deficit modestly improving to –1.5% of GDP. Higher commodity prices are expected to boost revenue, keeping the overall deficit...
What the World Can and Can’t Learn From China’s Industrial Policy
China’s industrial policy remains a polarising force in global economic governance as nations look to it for guidance amid geopolitical tension, supply‑chain disruptions, and green‑digital transitions. While high‑visibility subsidies target emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, semiconductors and green hydrogen,...
Beijing to Push Trump on Taiwan, with Potentially Global Consequences
Donald Trump will travel to Beijing on May 14‑15, 2026, seeking a diplomatic win ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms. He arrives amid a weak bargaining position, hampered by the Iran conflict, stalled domestic economy and his own tariff legacy....
China Green Tech and Its Industrial Policy
China has become the world’s leading manufacturer of green technology, driven by domestic environmental and energy‑security concerns. The state’s industrial policy blends aggressive acquisition of foreign technology, generous subsidies, and a fiercely competitive domestic market, giving China production capacity that...
Not Even Iran War’s Oil Shock Will Help China Reflate
China’s ten‑year sovereign bond yields briefly rose after the Iran‑related oil shock but fell back, underscoring persistent deflationary pressure. The People’s Bank of China kept benchmark rates unchanged for 11 months, while fiscal stimulus remained modest and focused on capacity‑building...
Despite Donroe Doctrine, Latin America and China to Remain BFFs but with a Twist
The U.S. National Security Strategy now frames Washington as the preferred partner in the Americas, aiming to curb China’s growing influence. Trade between China and the six major Latin American economies has surged over 3,200 % since 2001, far outpacing the...
The EU–India Deal Is Not Enough. India Needs Investment – Now
The EU and India signed a long‑awaited free‑trade agreement that cuts tariffs on cars, wine, pharmaceuticals and digital services. However, the pact omits any binding commitments on manufacturing investment, leaving a critical gap for India’s need to attract foreign direct...
Japan: Lower Hedging Costs to Stimulate Foreign Bond Investment Once Middle East Conflict Stabilizes
Japanese investors are reversing their post‑2022 retreat from foreign bonds, adding roughly $2 bn to European sovereigns and $7 bn to U.S. Treasuries in 2025. The rebound is anchored in falling hedging costs as the Bank of Japan raises rates while the...
How Russia and China Are Winning the War in Iran
Iran’s aggressive campaign to close the Strait of Hormuz with mines, missiles and drone swarms has driven global energy prices sharply higher. The United States’ attempt at a quick, decisive strike has backfired, leaving a protracted conflict that threatens worldwide...
2026 Middle East Conflict and Its Ripple Effects on the Global Economy: Potential Supply Chain Chaos Beyond Oil
The Middle East conflict, which intensified in early March 2026, has choked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil flows and limiting the export of refined industrial inputs such as elemental sulphur, agricultural nitrates, and semiconductor‑grade helium. These constraints are generating...
What Does the Iran Crisis Mean for the Global Economy?
The joint US‑Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February escalated into a full‑scale conflict that has choked the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude from under $70 to a volatile $90‑$100 range. Disruptions to oil, sulfur, ammonia and urea shipments are...
Oil and Beyond Oil: What Might Be the Economic Implications of Iran’s War on Asia?
The United States and Israel have launched a military strike on Iran, prompting analysts to model two outcomes: a swift conflict that keeps oil prices near a baseline of $80 per barrel, and a drawn‑out war that could push prices...