Geopolitical Futures

The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff

Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict. Iran’s short- and medium‑range ballistic missiles threaten regional infrastructure and shipping lanes, while U.S. naval and air assets have been positioned to deter attacks. Despite these risks, traders see the price movement as modest because large‑scale disruption appears unlikely.