Friday Footnotes April 10, 2026
Corn and wheat futures have slipped back to pre‑war price levels, with December corn now about 26 cents below its recent peak and July wheat roughly 70 cents lower. Soybean crush margins remain stronger, buoyed by biofuel news released in late March. Market optimism stems from expectations that the Middle East conflict will ease, favorable Brazilian Safrinha weather, a projected 60 + MMT corn crop in Argentina, and China’s effort to limit U.S. corn imports. A rapid build‑up of fund length also left the market vulnerable to long liquidations, amplifying the sell‑off.
A Post Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks Report Run Down April 2, 2025
The USDA released its March Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks report on Tuesday, marking one of the year’s most closely watched agricultural data releases. The figures provide the first official glimpse into farmers’ crop‑planting plans for the upcoming season and...
Friday Footnotes: Supply Dynamics and a Changing World
Recent attacks in the Middle East, including Iran's retaliation and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, have created unprecedented geopolitical turbulence. The disruption threatens global energy flows and could reverberate through commodity markets for years. Though less visible, agriculture...
Friday Footnotes: Corn Balance Sheet Blind Spots
The latest corn balance‑sheet analysis highlights a complex market landscape driven by rising energy costs, regional drought, and shifting farmer preferences. Energy‑price‑linked demand for ethanol is strengthening, while drought on the U.S. fringe is curbing planting intentions. Global cash markets...
Friday Footnotes: What Another War Could Mean for Grains
Angie Setzer, a grain‑market analyst, pivots her column to assess how the latest war could reshape global wheat dynamics. She highlights blind spots in the traditional wheat balance sheet, noting that disrupted Black Sea routes and export restrictions are tightening...
Friday Footnotes: Soybean Balance Sheet Blind Spots
The article challenges the conventional view that soybean price direction is driven solely by balance‑sheet metrics such as ending stocks. While 2024 forecasts show abundant production and high inventories, cash prices remain firm, suggesting that supply‑side fundamentals are more nuanced....
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the mixed performance of corn, soybeans, and wheat, highlighting soybean support from Argentine crop stress and strong soy oil contracts, while noting Brazil's advancing harvest and modest quality concerns. It discusses the ongoing acreage debate, with USDA...
Friday Footnotes: What Are The Cash Markets Trying To Say
In this episode, host examines the disconnect between grain futures narratives of abundant supply and weak demand and the reality observed in cash markets, emphasizing that U.S. farmers are still selling despite thin margins. The discussion highlights how rising cash...
Friday Footnotes: What's Happening In China
In this episode, the host examines the current state of China's grain market, focusing on its ability to meet President Trump's promised soybean purchases of 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) and the anticipated 25 million metric tons of new crop. The...