News•May 10, 2026
Drug Development Funnel: What I Learnt Building One From Scratch
A new D3.js funnel visualizes drug‑development attrition, showing that the headline billions‑dollar cost reflects cumulative failures rather than a single success. The plot reveals that pre‑clinical spending (~$430 M per approved drug) rivals the cost of late‑stage trials, and that only 29% of Phase II candidates advance to Phase III, primarily due to efficacy shortfalls. The analysis also highlights how biotech acquisitions implicitly pay for the hidden expense of dozens of failed rivals. These insights challenge common narratives and suggest a need to front‑load efficacy assessments to curb costly late‑stage failures.
