Risk-On Continues In Equities, But Some Early Signs Of Risk-Off Concurrently Show Up
U.S. equity markets extended their risk‑on rally last week, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.6% to 7,165 and the Nasdaq 100 jumping 2.4% to 27,304. Small‑cap Russell 2000 posted a modest 0.4% gain to 2,787 but closed as a weekly spinning top, hinting at mixed sentiment. Short interest hit record levels—$20.5 billion on the Nasdaq—while the CBOE put‑to‑call ratio lingered below 0.50 for a 13th straight session, underscoring extreme bullish bias. The market now eyes earnings from five Magnificent Seven tech giants as a potential turning point.
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Hedge funds (non‑commercial speculators) have deepened their bearish bets on long‑duration Treasuries, pushing net short positions in 10‑year note futures to 823.6 k contracts—a 5% weekly rise—and expanding 30‑year shorts to 59 k, up 86% week‑over‑week. In commodities, they remain net long...
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Hedge funds have deepened their net short position in 10‑year Treasury futures, pushing the short to 877.9k contracts and driving the 10‑year yield up to 4.09% after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s blanket tariffs. At the same time, the...