First-Time Home Buyers Are Older Than Ever
The median age of first‑time homebuyers in the United States has risen to 35, the highest level since the 1970s. Longitudinal data from the University of Michigan’s PSID shows a steady three‑year increase since 2000, contradicting Federal Reserve estimates that suggest a younger buyer cohort. The Fed’s credit‑record methodology misclassifies prior owners and omits cash purchases, which now account for about 30% of transactions. Adjusted analyses confirm that delayed adulthood milestones and housing affordability are pushing homeownership later.
Statistical Annex to ‘First Time Home Buyers Really Are Older’
The New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) identifies first‑time homebuyers solely by the first appearance of a mortgage on a credit report, excluding cash purchases. This definition misclassifies older repeat owners—boomerang buyers, paid‑off owners, and never‑mortgaged heirs—because prior mortgages...
What Does Your Grocery Store Say About Your Neighborhood?
A study of more than 32,000 grocery‑store openings from the 1970s onward links retailer type to subsequent home‑price performance at the ZIP‑code level. Trader Joe’s locations are in affluent, well‑educated neighborhoods and see home values rise 6% above the national average...
Mortgage Rates: 5.5% Really Is the Magic Number
Existing home sales in 2024 averaged 4.1 million units, the weakest pace since the mid‑1990s and about a quarter below the 5.3 million average recorded in 2018‑2019. Analysts argue that mortgage rates must fall to roughly 5.5% to revive the market as...
Visualizing Home Price Changes
A new bubble‑map visualizes home‑price appreciation across 22,000 U.S. ZIP codes. It shows that the median ZIP code has seen prices double over the past decade. The map sizes each dot by population and colors it by percent change, avoiding...
Back to the Suburbs: Chicago Edition
Home prices in Chicago’s urban core have slumped, with the Loop losing nearly 40% since early 2020, while surrounding suburbs and exurbs surged 45%‑48%. The affluent North Shore suburbs posted the strongest gains, topping 60% appreciation. The urban‑exurban price gap...
Don’t Blame Housing for Less Marriage
Recent analysis of 3,100 U.S. counties finds that rising housing costs have minimal impact on the nation’s declining marriage rates. The change in home price‑to‑income ratios accounts for only 4% of the variation, while the concentration of less‑educated racial minorities...
Why Did Rents Soar in Miami and Stall in Austin?
Rents in Miami have surged 53% since 2019, while San Francisco’s increase is only 13%. The analysis shows that the share of workers operating from home is the strongest predictor of these divergent trends. Metros with high work‑from‑home (WFH) adoption (above...
Does Supply Explain DC’s Low Rent Growth?
Washington D.C. rents have risen 27% since January 2019, trailing the national 39% gain. The conventional view blames excess multifamily supply, yet rent performance mirrors the city’s job market more closely than building permits or completions. During the pandemic D.C....
Living with Mom and Dad at 30
Homeownership among 30‑year‑olds has dropped from 45% in 1990 to 30% today, driven primarily by a surge in those living with parents or roommates, which rose from 17% to 32%. Marriage rates for this age group have fallen sharply, reducing...
The Condo Crisis
Since January 2020, US single‑family homes have appreciated 46% versus 34% for condos, widening the price premium to a record 22% or $74,000. The gap, historically 8‑17%, accelerated during the pandemic as remote work increased demand for space. Tightened condo...