A Time for Caution
The My Trend Asset Allocation Model has consistently outperformed the traditional 60/40 stock‑bond benchmark on an out‑of‑sample basis, delivering higher returns while maintaining comparable risk levels. Its trend‑following methodology spans a broad set of global equity markets and commodity prices, aiming to capture sustained price movements. The model’s track record shows it beating the benchmark almost every year since its launch. Access to the full report is gated behind a paid monthly subscription.
Some Final Words on the Market Outlook
The author announces retirement at the end of March and publishes a final strategy note on the intermediate‑term stock outlook. The piece highlights that the long‑term timing model remains bullish on equities, suggesting continued upside potential. A technical analysis review...
A ZBT Buy Signal Retirement Gift?
The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator slipped into oversold territory after Friday’s market weakness, resetting its count for a potential buy signal. Monday’s strong rally marked day one of a new upward move, and the market has posted three consecutive...
Explaining the Resilient S&P 500
The S&P 500 has shown unexpected resilience, slipping only about 7% from its peak despite Brent crude breaching $100 per barrel. Analysts attribute this stability to robust corporate earnings, a sector tilt toward defensive stocks, and continued monetary support. While...
Que Sera Sera
Mid‑week market commentary highlighted heightened uncertainty as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑100 briefly breached key support levels. Traders are urged to exercise patience amid volatile price action and unclear directional cues. The brief breakdowns suggest potential short‑term weakness, though broader...
TARP, 2026 Style
An opinion piece suggests the U.S. Treasury intervene in the Strait of Hormuz oil bottleneck by purchasing trapped tankers and cargo at a fixed price and reselling them at market rates, with the Navy providing escort. The author likens the...
Important Questions for Both Bulls and Bears
The article outlines the author’s suite of market‑timing models, highlighting the “Ultimate Market Timing Model” as a long‑term framework that produces only a few actionable signals each decade. It contrasts this with shorter‑horizon models that generate more frequent alerts. The...
A Recessionary Bear Ahead?
Betting markets have lifted the implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 following the onset of Gulf War III, signaling heightened concern over an oil‑price shock. Although the implied recession odds have eased slightly since their peak, they remain well...
A Washout Bottom?
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) displayed a potential reversal on Tuesday, opening lower, slipping further, then rallying to close the session in positive territory. The move was reinforced by a bullish divergence on the 5‑day Relative Strength Index and trading...
Could the “Lag 7” Crater the Economy and Market?
The so‑called "Magnificent Seven" mega‑cap stocks have broken a critical support level and are now testing the 200‑day moving average. Their relative performance chart is forming an inverted saucer top, a pattern often seen before sharper declines. Analysts warn that...
Drawing Lines in the Sand
The equal‑weighted S&P 500 continues a well‑defined uptrend, indicating intermediate‑term bullish momentum. In contrast, the broader, cap‑weighted U.S. equity averages remain confined to tight trading ranges, reflecting short‑term indecision. Meanwhile, the VVIX—volatility of the VIX—has stayed above the 100 threshold, underscoring...
The Dreaded Hindenburg Omen
The mid‑week market update flagged a fresh appearance of the Hindenburg Omen, a technical signal that emerges when market breadth splits and price momentum wanes. The omen indicates that a significant number of stocks are simultaneously hitting new highs and...