News•Mar 10, 2026
Colombia Election Notes - March 2026
Colombian right‑wing primaries saw Paloma Valencia capture over 5.5 million votes, eclipsing both Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella. De la Espriella’s early lead proved a prediction‑market bubble lacking grassroots support, and his momentum may soon fade. The governing Pacto Histórico secured legislative majorities despite not fielding a presidential candidate, while a newly consolidated centrist bloc now holds 47 Senate seats. U.S. conservative figures could influence the final presidential round, potentially favoring Valencia over de la Espriella.
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Mar 6, 2026
Friday Reading List - 6 March 2026
The author released a daily newsletter while traveling from Bogotá to the U.S., highlighting a $90 individual and $350 institutional subscription model. The edition curates a dense reading list covering Mexico’s cartel‑fuelled violence, U.S. military involvement in Ecuador, the geopolitical...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Mar 4, 2026
US Military in Ecuador - March 2026
U.S. Special Forces have deployed to Ecuador to conduct joint operations against designated terrorist groups. While the exact role remains unclear, the troops are believed to be primarily advisors but are authorized to engage in combat if necessary. The deployment...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Mar 2, 2026
Five Comments on How the Iran Conflict Will Impact Latin America
The U.S. military operation against Iran is pulling Washington’s attention away from its newly‑declared Western Hemisphere priority, threatening to sideline a March 7 summit of Trump‑friendly Latin leaders. Latin American governments are divided: Brazil and Colombia condemn the strikes, Argentina...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 26, 2026
Milei’s Economy: From Surf the Wave to Kick the Can
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 25, 2026
Trump's State of the Union Included Almost 1,200 Words About His LatAm Policies
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union devoted nearly 1,200 words to Latin American policy, far outpacing other regional references. The speech stressed new trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and security cooperation, echoing recent moves such as Honduras expelling Cuban doctors and...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 18, 2026
Secret Talks to Promote Regime Change in Cuba; Open Attempts to Prevent Regime Change in Peru
The episode examines covert U.S. diplomatic efforts to engineer regime change in Cuba, highlighted by secret talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Raul Castro’s grandson, alongside open U.S. moves to block regime change in Peru. It questions the viability...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 17, 2026
Five Ways AI Impacts Geopolitical Risk in Latin America
The episode outlines five ways AI will reshape geopolitical risk in Latin America: massive middle‑class job disruption as AI replaces outsourced service roles; a new extractive dependence on foreign data‑center investments that may boost the economy but keep profits abroad;...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 13, 2026
Friday Reading List - 13 February 2026
This episode surveys a whirlwind of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on Mexico’s fraught reforms under President Sheinbaum, the looming electoral shake‑ups in the region, and the resurgence of U.S. influence via Trump‑aligned policies. It highlights Mexico’s...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 11, 2026
US Policy in Latin America - 11 February 2026
The episode focuses on Venezuela, with a deep dive into its energy sector and the geopolitical implications for U.S. policy in Latin America. It also touches on related developments in Cuba, Argentina, and the strategic role of El Paso as a...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 10, 2026
Which Latin American Leaders Will Be Forced From Power in 2026?
In this episode the host examines prediction‑market odds for Latin American leaders being ousted before the end of 2026, using data from Kalshi and Polymarket. He highlights Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador as the most volatile cases, while noting that...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 9, 2026
Does Sheinbaum Really Care About Cuba? And How Likely Are US Military Strikes in Mexico?
The episode examines the increasingly fraught relationship between Mexico’s President‑elect Claudia Sheinbaum and former U.S. President Donald Trump, focusing on five intersecting issues: Mexico’s humanitarian aid and oil shipments to Cuba, alleged ties between Venezuela’s Maduro regime and Mexico’s Morena...
By Latin America Risk Report
News•Feb 6, 2026
Friday Reading List - 6 February 2026
The Friday Reading List for February 6, 2026 surveys a wave of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on the United States' renewed pressure on Cuba, shifting dynamics in Brazil, Costa Rica, and Mexico, and the fallout from...
By Latin America Risk Report