Powell’s Last Meeting
Jerome Powell is set to leave the Federal Reserve after his term ends May 15, with the FOMC likely holding rates at 3.50‑3.75%. The article argues that despite political criticism of “tight” policy, the Fed under Powell pursued the easiest monetary stance in modern history, letting nominal GDP grow well above the 4% trend and allowing inflation to spike to 9.1% in 2022. The credibility loss fuels political attacks and creates a fiscal‑dominance environment as President Trump pushes for lower rates. Kevin Warsh’s nomination signals a potential regime shift, but his policy framework remains undefined.
A New Service: Expert Briefings with Lars Christensen
PAICE has launched Expert Briefings, a bespoke service led by Lars Christensen that delivers interactive sessions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. The briefings are tailored to each organization’s industry, risk exposure, and strategic questions, and can be delivered as...
The Blue Owl in The Coal Mine – Private Credit: The New Subprime?
Blue Owl, a $300 bn private‑credit manager, froze withdrawals from a retail fund and sold $1.4 bn of loans in February 2026, sending its shares down nearly 60% in a year. The episode highlights rapid growth of private credit to $3 tn, driven by...