The Bermuda Triangle
The article warns that the push for the UAE to raise U.S.‑dollar swap lines exposes a looming liquidity crunch in private‑credit markets. Since Covid, “mark‑to‑model” financing of U.S. tech has moved from IPO exits to private‑market structures, spawning a chain of continuation funds, “pass‑the‑parcel” trades, and insurance‑float deals that merely relocate risk. Private‑equity firms are buying insurers, loading them with private debt, and then selling that debt to re‑insurers in jurisdictions like Bermuda, where asset‑liability oversight is lax. With Gulf sovereigns cash‑poor and the IPO market stalled, underlying investors face an unresolved liquidity gap.
Bad Moon Rising
Open‑source analyst Charlie Garcia argues that a convergence of military, political and economic deadlines makes a U.S. invasion of Iran’s Kharg oil terminal increasingly likely. He points to the dark‑moon window over the Persian Gulf, the imminent 60‑day congressional review,...
Thinking About Stagflation (Again)
The cease‑fire announcement in the Straits of Hormuz sparked a brief equity rally but left markets focused on energy‑related inflation risks. Oil futures have entered a steep backwardation, with 12‑month contracts priced over $30 below near‑term levels, while bond markets...