News•Apr 8, 2026
Thinking About Stagflation (Again)
The cease‑fire announcement in the Straits of Hormuz sparked a brief equity rally but left markets focused on energy‑related inflation risks. Oil futures have entered a steep backwardation, with 12‑month contracts priced over $30 below near‑term levels, while bond markets already price a Ukraine‑style inflation surge. Short‑term traders dominate trading activity, with hedge funds turning short‑gamma, amplifying price swings. The episode highlights deeper structural shifts, including potential erosion of the petrodollar as Iran entertains stable‑coin tolls for oil transit.
