MishTalk

What If the Iran War Ended Today? How Long Before Oil Is Normal?

An analyst cited by the Wall Street Journal estimates that if the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ended today, shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf would normalize in about two weeks and oil production would return to pre‑war levels within two months. The projection assumes an optimistic scenario, acknowledging that low‑cost drones and decentralized militia actions could continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq’s output has already fallen to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day, further constraining regional supply. The timeline underscores the lingering volatility even after a cease‑fire.