Noema Magazine

Not Yet ‘Game Over’ In Iran

The United States and Israel have launched a sustained air and missile campaign that killed dozens of senior Iranian officials, including an alleged strike on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. While the decapitation of the regime’s leadership demonstrates unprecedented targeting capability, lasting regime change hinges on the ability of fragmented reformist groups to coalesce and establish domestic legitimacy. The article warns that any transition perceived as driven by U.S. or Israeli support could undermine popular acceptance and fuel nationalist backlash. It also highlights that China and Russia’s assistance is largely symbolic, and a drawn‑out conflict may strain U.S. strategic focus elsewhere.