OECD

Why Futures Literacy Improves the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Foresight

The video argues that futures literacy is the missing link that makes foresight both more efficient and more effective. Drawing on decades of experience at the OECD, the speaker frames the discussion around a historic shift from a material, mass‑production economy to an immaterial, knowledge‑driven one, and explains why this transition demands new ways of using the future in policy design. Key insights include a three‑dimensional view of change—inside‑in, outside‑in, and inside‑out—allowing analysts to distinguish between incremental improvements and disruptive novelty. The speaker warns against the “colonization of imagination,” where dominant narratives impose a single vision of the good life, and stresses that perception must precede choice. He highlights the role of myths, hero‑journey narratives, and hype cycles (nanotech, biotech, blockchain, LLMs) as lenses that shape how societies anticipate change. Notable examples feature the historical move from feudal land‑based wealth to industrial mass production, and the current push toward immaterial value creation. The speaker quotes, “Perception precedes choice; you cannot choose what you cannot perceive,” underscoring the need to broaden imaginations beyond back‑casting to include emergent, non‑scalable possibilities. The implication for policymakers and business leaders is clear: embedding futures literacy into decision‑making equips organizations to detect emerging trends, avoid narrow scenario traps, and design policies that are resilient to uncertainty. By cultivating diverse imaginaries and recognizing the fluid inside‑out dynamics, institutions can better align strategic investments with the evolving, immaterial economy.