Options Trading IQ

Stock Market Crash? Here's What's Actually Happening

Markets are experiencing a normal pullback rather than a structural crash: the S&P 500 has slipped below its 21- and 50-day moving averages while the Nasdaq is nearer its 200-day support and down about 4–5% from recent highs. Key intramarket levels to watch this week are roughly 6,775 on the S&P and about 595 on the Nasdaq; a slide to the 6,150 area would imply a roughly 10% further decline and a deeper correction. The presenter assigns roughly a 20–25% probability to that larger drop but stresses charts alone aren’t decisive, pointing instead to a nine-item “risk dashboard” he monitors daily. The VIX futures curve (via VIXCentral) — specifically any move into backwardation — is highlighted as the primary early-warning indicator that would prompt adding hedges or increasing bearish positions.