World War Trade and the Strait of Hormuz
In May 2026, Richard Baldwin highlighted Iran's unprecedented full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time the vital chokepoint has been shut in modern history. He links the move to the 2025 shift where the United States and China normalized the weaponisation of trade, turning imports and exports into geopolitical tools. Baldwin warns that Iran's action could normalize the weaponisation of shipping, prompting middle powers to contemplate similar tactics such as tolls on maritime routes. While the global trading order is being reshaped, he argues it remains intact, provided key shipping lanes stay open.
When Trump Met Escalation Dominance:
In April 2025 President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs that peaked at 125% on Chinese goods, prompting an immediate Chinese retaliation of equal magnitude. The extreme duties quickly choked U.S. supply chains, causing port congestion, retailer shortages and factory shutdowns, especially for...