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Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

Publication
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U.S. macro, inflation and labor markets, and policy process explained clearly for practitioners and the public.

Recent Posts

Trust in Numbers
News•Feb 20, 2026

Trust in Numbers

The article argues that while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces accusations of political manipulation, there is no evidence of data tampering and the agency relied on its documented imputation methodology during the 2025 shutdown. It highlights the importance of procedural consistency for CPI, which underpins Social Security, TIPS, and private contracts. The piece also points out chronic underinvestment, staff cuts, and sample reductions that erode data precision. Ultimately, trust in official statistics depends on both safeguarding against interference and maintaining robust funding for statistical agencies.

By Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
News•Feb 11, 2026

Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession

The latest BLS employment report revealed that payroll growth stalled in 2024, with the March 2025 benchmark revision removing 898,000 jobs and total downward adjustments surpassing one million by year‑end. Despite the sizable cuts, the revised employment series closely mirrors...

By Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)