Fed Chair Apprentice
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is undergoing a Senate confirmation hearing that could make him the next Fed chair, pending President Trump’s backing and a pending DOJ investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell. Warsh emphasizes that the Fed’s operational independence is self‑determined, even as Trump pressures the central bank for lower rates. He frames inflation as a policy choice rooted in monetarist theory, while also advocating for a rollback of post‑crisis financial regulations. The hearing pits Warsh’s market‑friendly agenda against concerns about politicizing monetary policy and the potential for internal investigations to replace the DOJ probe.
More Questions Than Answers: Thinking Through Recession Risks
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving oil prices up, reviving concerns about a U.S. recession. Economists note that higher energy costs could reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance rate cuts against potential hikes. Multiple geopolitical flashpoints—from Iran...
Trust in Numbers
The article argues that while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces accusations of political manipulation, there is no evidence of data tampering and the agency relied on its documented imputation methodology during the 2025 shutdown. It highlights the importance...
Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
The latest BLS employment report revealed that payroll growth stalled in 2024, with the March 2025 benchmark revision removing 898,000 jobs and total downward adjustments surpassing one million by year‑end. Despite the sizable cuts, the revised employment series closely mirrors...