Could UAE Move to De-Peg Early?
The United Arab Emirates is weighing an early de‑peg of the dirham from the U.S. dollar amid a war‑driven oil export slump and its recent exit from OPEC. Proponents argue that a flexible, potentially stronger currency would leverage the emirate’s $1 trillion‑plus sovereign wealth fund to attract capital and fund diversification away from oil. Critics warn that moving away from the dollar could add uncertainty while most of the UAE’s trade remains dollar‑priced. The decision hinges on regional security, especially the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the timing of fiscal and monetary policy adjustments.
Simsek Is a Keeper & VDL Needs to Read the Memo
Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has faced intense media criticism but has overseen a dramatic macro‑economic turnaround since spring 2023. Inflation fell from over 70% to just above 30%, foreign reserves swelled to roughly $200 bn and the once‑looming KKM gap...
Gulf War III, Markets Sanguine, Why?
Markets rallied sharply after a cease‑fire was announced in the Iran‑Gulf conflict, erasing the S&P’s earlier war‑related losses and bringing risk assets back to near‑pre‑war levels. Oil prices remain about 50% above pre‑crisis levels, and the Strait of Hormuz...
New Confidence in Ukraine
The war in Iran has shifted global attention away from Ukraine, giving Russia an unexpected economic boost as higher oil prices and eased U.S. sanctions lift its energy revenues. At the same time, Ukraine is gaining confidence through successful drone...
“Daddy” Killed NATO
Recent commentary argues that U.S. under‑spending and Trump’s confrontational stance are pushing NATO toward a breaking point, especially as European allies feel abandoned. The piece highlights the UK’s dependence on U.S. Tomahawk missiles and F‑35s, exposing capability gaps in British...
Lessons From UKR-RU Peace Talks for US-Iran
Ragip Soylu argues that President Trump’s fifteen‑point Iran peace proposal mirrors the hard‑ball tactics used in Russia‑Ukraine negotiations, where maximalist demands were set to control the narrative rather than secure a deal. Unlike Moscow, Trump appears desperate for a settlement,...