Against the Odds: US Is Relatively Resilient Despite Global Turmoil
Despite heightened policy uncertainty, trade barriers and a war in the Middle East, the U.S. economy remains on a growth path. Real‑time indicators such as the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (2.7% YoY) and the Johnson Redbook Index show solid activity, while the S&P 500 has recovered most of its 2023 losses. Energy independence helps blunt the impact of higher global oil prices, but rising inflation and a sharp 11% fall in consumer sentiment signal growing risks. Analysts caution that the current resilience may be approaching its limits.
Q1 GDP Poised for Rebound as Fragile Ceasefire Clouds Outlook
The median nowcast from CapitalSpectator forecasts a 2.3% rise in U.S. first‑quarter GDP, rebounding from a modest 0.7% gain in Q4. This optimism depends on a fragile cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict, which still clouds the outlook for Q2. However,...
Markets Are Decoupling Again, Based On Return Correlations
A rolling‑window analysis of daily returns shows the median correlation across major asset classes has slipped to 0.42, down from above 0.65 a few years ago. This lower correlation indicates that diversification benefits have strengthened in the current market environment....