The Return of Nonlinear Inflation: Part I
The article warns that the Iran‑related Hormuz disruption could spark a new wave of nonlinear inflation, where supply‑chain stress propagates through the entire production system rather than fading with oil prices. It highlights the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) as a leading indicator of systemic stress and explains how large shocks trigger a cascade from producer‑price spikes to persistent core inflation. The author argues that traditional models and oil‑future monitoring miss this deeper, multi‑stage transmission, making fiscal buffers and targeted policy essential. The piece draws parallels to the COVID‑era inflation surge, emphasizing the risk of a prolonged inflation regime.
A Modern Governor
Hyun Song Shin, a leading BIS economist, has been appointed governor of the Bank of Korea. The selection underscores a shift away from the traditional academic‑practitioner debate toward a demand for flexible, analysis‑driven leadership. Shin’s opening remarks stress intellectual rigor...
A Compounding Oil Shock: Part III
The article proposes a "Supply Accord" – a coordinated fiscal‑monetary framework to tackle a persistent, geopolitically‑driven oil shock that has moved from price spikes to real supply constraints. It argues that the Fed’s rate tool can protect the inflation anchor...
The Digital Yuan and the New Geography of Monetary Power
The episode examines how China’s digital yuan (e‑yuan) reshapes the internationalization of the renminbi by focusing on usage rather than ownership. It explains that traditional barriers were convertibility and capital controls, which limited the ability to sell or move RMB...