The MacroTourist

REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE ARE VASTLY EXAGGERATED

Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected. The piece blends historical perspective with current data to show that recessions and expansions remain integral to economic dynamics. Muir cautions against complacency, emphasizing that the cycle’s volatility can return swiftly.