The History of War & Markets
In this episode of The Timeless Investor, Ari Van Gemmeren systematically examines every major armed conflict of the past century and shows that U.S. equity markets have almost always posted positive returns in the 12 months after a war begins, averaging around a 2‑3% gain. He explains why initial panic gives way to gains, highlighting mechanisms such as the market’s discounting of uncertainty, the geography of destruction (U.S. wars are fought abroad, boosting defense‑related production), and the fact that earnings are rarely directly harmed by geopolitics unless the war reshapes macro factors like oil prices or monetary policy. Exceptions like the 1973 oil embargo and the Gulf War’s oil shock illustrate that it’s the macro transmission, not the war itself, that can cause lasting market damage. The episode underscores the importance of distinguishing narrative fear from actual economic impact when assessing war‑related market risk.
AI & The Railroad Wars
In this episode Ari Van Gemeren draws a parallel between the 19th‑century railroad boom and today’s AI infrastructure frenzy, outlining five investor mistakes that repeated across eras: conflating transformative technology with guaranteed returns, pressure to deploy massive capital, insider extraction...
The Duration Trap
The article warns that real‑estate investors repeatedly fall into a “duration trap” by financing long‑term assets with short‑term debt. When credit conditions shift—whether during the 1980s S&L crisis, Japan’s 1990s collapse, the 2008 CMBS freeze, or the recent bridge‑loan crunch—refinancing...
The Stoic Investor
The article by Arie van Gemeren links ancient Stoic philosophy to modern investing, highlighting three core principles—Dichotomy of Control, Amor Fati, and Memento Mori—as behavioral frameworks. It argues that focusing on controllable variables, welcoming adversity, and recognizing the finite life...
Why Rate Direction Doesn't Matter
The article challenges the common focus on interest‑rate direction, arguing that the cause behind rate moves matters far more for real‑estate investors. From 1981 to 2021, a secular decline in rates compressed cap rates, inflating property values regardless of operational...
After the Petrodollar
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
Doomers, Emperors, and the Narrative Trap
The Timeless Investor newsletter warns that the current AI doomer narrative has exploded into a mass‑psychosis, inflating risk mispricing across markets. It cites the Jevons paradox in radiology and the democratization of AI tools as unintended consequences that counter the...