Canadian Shopping Centre Performance Trends (2023–2025)

Why It Matters

The polarization directs capital toward elite malls, boosting rents and redevelopment, while mid‑tier owners face declining tenant interest and must rethink asset strategies.

Key Takeaways

• Top‑tier malls exceed $2,300 psf, outpacing mid‑tier properties
• Sales gap widened: many centres now under $700 psf
• Toronto and Western Canada anchor the high‑performing segment
• Mid‑tier assets likely to pursue mixed‑use or repositioning

Pulse Analysis

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) released a three‑year dataset that offers the most reliable post‑pandemic benchmark for Canadian mall productivity. By standardizing sales per square foot across 2023‑2025, the report eliminates the distortions caused by uneven lockdown timelines and provides a clear view of how retail space is performing in today’s economy. This granular insight is valuable for investors and developers seeking data‑driven decisions rather than anecdotal observations.

A striking feature of the data is the growing concentration of sales in a small cohort of premium assets. Malls that combine luxury brands, high foot traffic, and experiential amenities consistently generate $1,300‑$2,400 per square foot, far outpacing the majority of mid‑tier centres that sit under $700. Consumer preferences for curated, mixed‑use environments and retailers’ strategic shift toward fewer, higher‑margin locations are driving this divergence. The $1,000‑per‑square‑foot threshold now acts as a performance divide, separating elite destinations from the broader market.

For landlords and capital providers, the implications are clear. High‑performing malls are likely to attract premium leases, increased cap rates, and redevelopment capital, reinforcing their status as anchor investments. Conversely, owners of under‑performing properties must explore repositioning tactics—such as integrating residential, office, or entertainment components—to revive foot traffic and revenue. As urban populations continue to grow in Toronto, Vancouver and other major hubs, the competitive advantage of top‑tier centres is set to intensify, reshaping the Canadian retail real‑estate landscape.