NAR’s Jessica Lautz on Expectations for the Spring Housing Market
•March 4, 2026
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Why It Matters
Lower mortgage rates and shifting buyer demographics could revive demand, yet persistent supply shortages and aging‑homeowner equity constraints will shape pricing and transaction volume for all market participants.
Key Takeaways
- •Mortgage rates are trending lower, boosting spring buying activity.
- •First‑time buyer activity rose seasonally, surpassing last year’s levels.
- •Contingency waivers hit four‑year low, indicating stronger offers.
- •Home prices still rising, with 16% selling above asking price.
- •Older repeat buyers increasingly active, driven by retirement and equity.
Summary
In a recent NAR podcast, deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz outlined the outlook for the spring housing market, emphasizing that declining mortgage rates are setting the stage for a more active buying season after two years of stagnation. She highlighted a seasonal uptick in first‑time buyer activity that now exceeds last year’s figures, and noted that buyers are increasingly willing to waive appraisal and inspection contingencies, pushing those waivers to their lowest level in four years.
Lautz pointed out that home prices continue to climb in most markets, with 16% of transactions closing above the asking price and an average of two offers per home. While some properties linger longer, overall price growth remains driven by limited supply, especially at affordable price points. Geographic nuances persist, creating a “tale of two cities” where cash‑rich investors compete with first‑time buyers facing inventory shortages.
The conversation also delved into demographic shifts: the median age of first‑time buyers appears to be 40, largely because cash‑rich older buyers—often inheriting wealth—inflate the figure, while excluding them leaves the age flat at 38. Repeat buyers now have a median age of 62, reflecting baby‑boomer retirees seeking new primary residences and a post‑recession mindset of longer home tenure. Lautz cited policy ideas such as raising the capital‑gains exemption and expanding property‑tax relief to unlock equity from older homeowners.
These trends suggest that lower rates could reignite demand, but the market’s trajectory will hinge on how quickly supply constraints ease and whether policy adjustments can mobilize the substantial equity held by aging homeowners. For sellers, lenders, and investors, understanding the interplay of rate movements, buyer demographics, and inventory dynamics will be crucial to navigating the coming months.
Original Description
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors, about expectations for the spring housing market on home prices, concessions, cash buyers and more.
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