Brad Carr: Canada Needs to Cut the GST/HST for All New Homebuyers, Not Just First-Timers

Why It Matters

Expanding the GST/HST rebate could revive stalled home sales, safeguard thousands of construction jobs, and protect billions in government revenue, stabilizing Canada’s housing market and broader economy.

Key Takeaways

• GTA home sales fell 11.2% in 2025.
• Single-family sales down 63% versus ten-year average.
• 59% of buyers favor expanded GST rebate.
• 41,000 construction jobs at risk without sales rebound.
• Expanded rebate could protect $6.5 billion tax revenue.

Pulse Analysis

Canada’s housing market faces a dual crisis: chronic supply shortages and a sudden plunge in sales. In the Greater Toronto Area, new‑home transactions dropped 11.2% last year, while single‑family and condo sales lagged dramatically behind a decade‑long baseline. The slowdown stems less from a lack of buyer interest and more from eroding consumer confidence amid trade tensions and a softening economy. Policymakers have already introduced a GST/HST exemption for first‑time buyers, but delays in legislation have limited its impact, leaving a sizable segment of the market untapped.

Recent polling commissioned by Mattamy Homes reveals a strong appetite for broader tax relief. Nearly 60% of prospective purchasers say an expanded GST rebate would increase their likelihood of buying, and the figure jumps to 79% among non‑first‑time buyers constrained by cost. Extending the rebate could therefore act as an immediate demand catalyst, encouraging builders to move shovel‑ready projects forward and preserving an estimated 41,000 jobs in the GTA construction sector. The fiscal stakes are equally high, with potential tax‑revenue losses projected at $6.5 billion annually if the downturn persists.

Beyond the short‑term boost, a universal GST/HST rebate aligns with a longer‑term strategy to balance supply and demand. By lowering the effective purchase price, the policy can stimulate a wider range of buyers—from growing families to seniors downsizing—thereby diversifying demand across housing types. While broader tax reforms and zoning changes remain essential for sustainable supply growth, an expanded rebate offers a quick, politically feasible tool to keep the construction pipeline active, protect employment, and reinforce confidence in Canada’s real‑estate market.