How War with Iran Could Affect Mortgage Rates

Why It Matters

A sustained geopolitical escalation or stronger inflation data would raise Treasury yields and mortgage rates, worsening affordability and slowing the housing recovery; borrowers and lenders should watch oil, yields and economic prints closely.

Summary

Analysts say the conflict with Iran has produced only a modest immediate move in mortgage markets but could push rates higher if it escalates. Safe‑haven flows initially drove 10‑year yields down to about 3.9%, then yields climbed back toward ~4.0% and conventional mortgage rates rose from roughly 5.99% to 6.12%. Oil prices have not spiked enough yet to force a sustained inflationary shock, but hotter-than-expected inflation and manufacturing price data plus upcoming jobs reports could lift yields further. Markets are therefore treating escalation and incoming economic data as the key variables for where mortgage rates go next.

Original Description

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the Iran war and how it could affect the 10-year yield and mortgage rates.

Related to this episode:

Will war with Iran send mortgage rates higher or lower?

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/will-war-with-iran-send-mortgage-rates-higher-or-lower/

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The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.