The Capital Gains Tax Debate: What Property Investors Must Know, with Ken Raiss
•March 9, 2026
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Why It Matters
Changes to the CGT discount could reshape investment incentives, curb housing supply and affect government revenue, making it a pivotal issue for property investors and policymakers alike.
Key Takeaways
- •CGT discount under review, proposals cut from 50% to 25%
- •Reducing discount could deter individual investors, shift market to corporations
- •Property investors face multiple taxes beyond CGT, diminishing net returns
- •Potential policy change may lower housing supply and raise rental yields
- •Government likely avoids retroactive changes to protect investor confidence
Summary
The podcast examines Australia’s capital gains tax (CGT) discount debate, featuring tax specialist Ken Raiss, who explains that the government is considering halving the current 50% discount to 25% or removing it entirely. The discussion frames the proposal as a fiscal tool to balance the nation’s growing debt while appeasing calls for fairness and housing affordability.
Raiss traces the CGT’s evolution, noting its original purpose to offset inflation and its 1999 shift to a flat 50% discount. He emphasizes that property investors already shoulder land tax, stamp duty, GST and other levies, leaving net rental yields around 2.5%. Cutting the discount would erode after‑tax returns, making investment riskier for ordinary Australians and potentially driving market share toward large corporations.
Key remarks include, “The law of economics always wins in the end,” and, “If you eliminate that, you remove a fundamental bedrock of why people invest.” Raiss warns that reduced incentives could suppress pre‑sales, tighten developer financing, and slow new‑home construction, while the government may see delayed revenue because CGT is only payable on sales.
The broader implication is a potential decline in housing supply, higher rental yields, and diminished confidence among individual investors, which could hinder first‑home buyer access and limit the government’s fiscal boost from CGT revenues.
Original Description
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What if the next big housing reform doesn’t fix housing affordability at all?
What if it doesn’t lower property prices, doesn’t deliver much extra money to the government for years, but it scares investors out of the market and makes renting even harder?
Because that’s exactly what could happen if Australia changes the Capital Gains Tax discount - and it’s back on the political agenda again.
Today one of Australia’s leading taxation minds, Ken Raiss and I unpack what’s really going on.
Supporters of the change are saying it’s about fairness. They say it will stop “property speculation,” improve housing affordability, and raise billions of dollars for the federal budget.
In fact, some politicians and unions are claiming it could be one of the biggest levers to finally make housing more affordable for everyday Australians.
And at first glance, it sounds plausible. After all, who doesn’t want a more affordable housing market?
But here’s the problem…Housing markets don’t respond well to slogans. They respond to supply and demand. They respond to incentives. And they respond to confidence.
And when you change tax policy, you don’t just change government revenue. You change behaviour. You change investment decisions. You change the flow of money.
And sometimes, you create consequences nobody intended.
Takeaways
• Housing reform doesn't lower property prices.
• Capital gains tax is a tax on profit when you sell an asset.
• Supply, supply, supply is the answer.
• Don't make knee-jerk reactions to tax changes.
• Investors are long-term holders, not speculators.
• The CGT discount debate is not simple.
• Rents will go up if investors pull back.
• We need more homes built in the right areas.
• Wealth creation is about planning and strategy.
• The government needs to focus on supply, not taxes.
Links and Resources:
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Michael Yardney
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Ken Raiss, Director of Metropole Wealth Advisory
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