Did the Bear Market Begin?

Why It Matters

The market’s indecision could trigger a swift shift from sideways consolidation to a rapid decline or breakout, directly affecting equity, commodity and sector allocations for traders and portfolio managers.

Key Takeaways

• Market stuck in narrow range despite volatile news.
• Nasdaq relative strength could trigger breakout if SPY holds above 676.
• Oil prices rising sharply; short positions being built cautiously.
• SanDisk shows resilience but risk of lower lows if stop hit.
• Safe‑haven sectors like gold remain limited; broad sell‑offs likely.

Summary

The hosts debate whether a bear market has begun, noting that the S&P 500 has been confined to a tight 3% trading range despite dramatic headlines such as a 31% weekly oil surge and geopolitical tension. They point to the recent breakdown of the IWM and the SPY’s flirtation with the 675‑676 resistance level as signs the market could roll over, yet emphasize that the Nasdaq’s renewed relative strength—driven by names like Nvidia—offers a counter‑weight that could spark a breakout. Key data points include the SPY’s daily chart forming a lower‑high, lower‑low pattern, the oil market climbing to multi‑year highs and prompting small, cautious short builds on USO, and SanDisk’s precarious position after a stop loss was placed, with a potential slide to the $400‑$450 range if today’s low is breached. The discussion also touches on seasonal factors, the March‑14 pivot, and the impact of secondary offerings on individual stocks. Notable remarks underscore the uncertainty: “time is a bull’s friend” and “if we break today’s low, SanDisk heads to 450.” The hosts also highlight the wild‑card nature of political developments, noting that Trump’s actions could influence oil sentiment and market direction. Gold is the only asset class showing modest resilience, but the consensus is that broad sell‑offs tend to sweep all sectors. For investors, the takeaway is clear: monitor the SPY’s ability to stay above the 676 barrier and the Nasdaq’s relative strength, while remaining prepared for a rapid downside move if key support levels fail. Position sizing, stop‑loss discipline, and awareness of sector‑specific catalysts—especially oil and technology—will be critical in navigating this “slippery, sloppy” market environment.

Original Description

The SPX is at risk of downtrend after a series of lower highs and lower lows.

But are we entering bear market territory?

Derrick Oldensmith, JR Romero, and Sami Abusaad answer.

We also go over:

-Why the Iran war hasn't moved the market (yet)

-Where the safe havens are

-Should you ever stop trading in the middle of a day

-Our favorite ideas

Disclosures: https://www.t3live.com/disclosures/

Derrick's positions as of 2026-03-05 at 2.15.51 PM

Longs: BITI, EEM, ESTC, EWJ, GAME, GOOGL, INHD, MSFT, NVDA OSCR, RGTI, S, SNAP, SOFI, TSM, SPY Puts, VIX Calls

Shorts: IWM, PLTR, SEDG, TQQQ, TSLA, UPRO, SPY Calls, VIX Calls-W