Most Traders Panic at All-Time Highs. Errol Coleman Shows 3 Strategies (Including Do Nothing).
Why It Matters
Understanding how to position at all‑time highs helps traders capitalize on statistical bullishness while avoiding the pitfalls of emotional over‑trading, directly impacting portfolio risk and return.
Key Takeaways
- •All‑time highs statistically favor another high, indicating bullish bias.
- •Buy dips using larger swing‑low stop to manage risk.
- •Short at highs via cheap puts; volatility rise can boost profits.
- •Selling out‑of‑the‑money or naked calls is riskier, requires sleep‑friendly exposure.
- •Doing nothing may be safest when market direction is unclear.
Summary
In the latest episode of “If I Started Trading Today,” Errol Coleman tackles the paradox of trading markets that are hitting all‑time highs. He notes that historically a new high is more likely to be followed by another, suggesting an inherent bullish bias, yet the emotional pull on both sides can cloud judgment.
Coleman outlines three practical approaches. First, buying the dip while anchoring the stop to a larger‑time‑frame swing low gives traders room to stay in a bullish trade without premature exits. Second, he recommends shorting at peaks with cheap out‑of‑the‑money puts—or, for more aggressive players, selling naked calls—leveraging the typically low volatility at highs to capture asymmetric upside when volatility expands on a downside move. Third, he advises simply staying on the sidelines when market direction is ambiguous.
He emphasizes “let the picture paint,” warning that chasing a runaway train often yields unfavorable risk‑reward. Real‑world examples include weekend gaps of 2,300 points driven by headline risk such as the Trump‑Iran standoff, illustrating how external events can abruptly reverse market momentum.
The takeaway for investors is clear: while statistics favor continued rallies, disciplined risk management and personal risk tolerance should dictate whether to buy, short, or sit out. Ignoring these principles can expose traders to outsized losses in volatile, headline‑driven environments.
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