S&P 500 Blow-Off Top and Bitcoin to $44k | Live Setups

Why It Matters

A confirmed top in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin could trigger a swift sell‑off, reshaping risk‑asset allocations and prompting investors to adjust exposure ahead of potential market volatility.

Key Takeaways

• S&P 500 shows potential blow‑off top before FOMC meeting.
• Hourly break‑of‑structure signals first low‑take‑out in current uptrend.
• Bitcoin mirrors S&P pattern, targeting mid‑$40k on 4‑hour analysis.
• Short positions placed on both assets; risk limited amid volatility.
• Confirmation requires four‑hour close below key support after FOMC.

Summary

The video focuses on a possible blow‑off top forming in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. Analyst Justin Bennett argues that recent price action suggests the equity index and the leading cryptocurrency are nearing short‑term peaks, prompting him to hold short positions on both.

Key technical signals include an hourly break‑of‑structure—the first low‑take‑out in the current uptrend—and a four‑hour change of character that could confirm a top if the market closes below critical support after the FOMC. Imbalance zones on the S&P point to a potential retrace toward the 6,600 level, while Bitcoin’s four‑hour chart and weekly bearish change of character target a drop to the mid‑$40k range.

Notable observations: “This is the first time within this uptrend that we have seen this,” and “If we get a close below this level following FOMC, then we have a confirmed top.” The analyst also highlights the strong correlation between the two assets, noting that a pullback in the S&P could amplify Bitcoin’s decline.

Implications for traders are clear: monitor the post‑FOMC close for confirmation, consider short exposure with limited risk, and be prepared for broader market weakness that could affect risk‑on assets and crypto alike.

Original Description

I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader.

You can access it here: https://access.dailypriceaction.com/smc-strategy

The S&P 500 and Bitcoin may have just signaled a top going into FOMC, and in this video I break down exactly why I'm leaning bearish on both markets here.

Starting with the S&P 500, we've got what looks like a blow-off top on the daily chart after that explosive move higher trapped shorts. But what's actually tradable is the shift we just saw on the one hour timeframe. This is the first real BOS and change of character we've seen during this entire uptrend on SPX. For more conviction, traders should watch the four hour lows. A four hour close below those lows following FOMC would confirm a top is in place.

I also walk through the imbalances left behind on this leg up for the S&P 500. There's a clear pocket of unmitigated price down toward 6,600 that remains open for business, and that lines up with the discount zone below the 50% level of this entire move.

For Bitcoin, the structure is nearly identical to a previous bear flag setup. We've got the trend line break on the four hour, acceptance below the recent double top low, and BTC rejecting from the top of the channel on the daily. On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin already has a fresh bearish change of character with lower highs and lower lows, which most traders aren't talking about.

The Bitcoin target I lay out is dramatic but it makes sense when you study the imbalances. Going back to early 2024, BTC had a clean displacement out of consolidation that left an imbalance which was perfectly tagged on this last leg lower. The next equivalent imbalance sits around mid 40Ks on the weekly chart. When you measure the bear flag projection on the daily in linear view, the objective lands right in that same low to mid 40K zone. That alignment is not a coincidence.

The four hour BOS on Bitcoin makes 73,600 the key protected low. A close below that level after FOMC would confirm the top.

I also cover the BTC vs SPX divergence that started back in October. Bitcoin has been weakening substantially against the S&P 500 for months now, and the crypto market has only ever existed during the good times since 2008. We have not seen Bitcoin stress tested during a real recession or a cyclical downtrend within a larger debt cycle. That's worth thinking about if you're heavily long crypto.

Full disclosure, I have shorts on both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin going into FOMC, and I've sized them so I'm not over leveraged given how correlated these two move. These trades were shared live in Discord with full charts and descriptions.

This analysis uses Smart Money Concepts including break of structure, change of character, imbalances, displacement, premium and discount, OTE, order blocks, and bear flag projections applied to SPX and BTC.

#SP500 #Bitcoin #SMCTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #FOMC #BTC #SPX #MarketStructure #ForexTrading #cryptotradingpro

CHAPTERS

0:00 Intro

0:16 S&P 500 structure and blow-off top

1:04 SPX one hour shift and confirmation level

2:27 SPX imbalances and downside targets

4:52 Bitcoin bear flag and four hour breakdown

6:27 BTC weekly change of character

7:12 Bitcoin targets in the low to mid 40Ks

10:14 BTC vs S&P 500 divergence

SMC LESSONS

BoS and CHoCH made simple

https://youtu.be/FE1bgD9N6DM

Steal my liquidity sweep entry model (beginner-friendly)

https://youtu.be/XH4TAoLCFBk

Premium, discount, and OTE explained

https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8

Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.