This ETN Setup Has a 9.5/10 Win Rate (Here’s Why)

Why It Matters

The combination of a 95% historical success rate and a risk‑capped butterfly gives traders a rare opportunity to capture sizable upside on ETN while protecting capital, a model that can be replicated across similar high‑probability setups.

Key Takeaways

• Bullish divergent bar predicts price returning above high within three bars.
• ETN shows 9.5/10 follow‑through rate on similar setups.
• Multi‑timeframe squeezes suggest rising momentum and potential breakout.
• Broken‑wing butterfly call spread limits risk, offers forgiveness if ITM.
• Trade targets 420‑435 range; profit potential up to $820 per contract.

Summary

In a recent Simpler Trading video, director of risk tolerance Allison Ostrander outlines a high‑probability options play on ETN, centering on a bullish divergent bar pattern that historically drives the price back above its high within three bars.

Ostrander notes ETN’s 9.5‑out‑of‑10 follow‑through rate on similar setups, a weekly bullish divergent bar, and a confluence of short‑term (4‑day) and longer‑term (monthly) ideal squeezes that keep momentum above the zero line. The stock is also respecting the 30‑day SMA near the 400 level, providing a technical floor.

She illustrates the trade with a 420‑430‑435 call broken‑wing butterfly, entered at $1.25 for a max profit of $823 per contract. The structure offers a “forgiveness factor”: even if the spread finishes deep in‑the‑money, the net value remains positive, limiting downside while preserving upside to $820‑$875.

For options traders, the setup demonstrates how layered technical signals and a carefully‑designed spread can translate a statistically strong move into a defined‑risk, high‑reward position, reinforcing the value of disciplined, data‑driven entry points.

Original Description

ETN is flashing one of the cleanest bullish setups you’ll see this week, and the chart is stacking multiple high-probability signals at once.

In this video, Allison Ostrander breaks down a powerful bullish divergent bar signal on the daily chart, explains why ETN has an incredible 9.5/10 follow-through rate, and shows the exact levels she’s targeting into the end of the week. If you’ve been waiting for a clean swing trade entry, this is the type of setup traders look for.

What makes this even more interesting is that the daily chart isn’t acting alone. The weekly bullish divergence, combined with a developing squeeze across multiple timeframes, suggests ETN may be setting up for a strong push back toward the top of its range (and potentially beyond).

Allison also walks through the exact options strategy she used: a 435 call debit broken wing butterfly, designed to profit if ETN moves toward the 420–435 zone while still offering a “forgiveness factor” if the move overshoots.

If you trade bullish squeezes, momentum resets, or structured option spreads, this is a must-watch.

⏱️ Timestamps:

00:00 ETN bullish setup + daily divergent bar explained

00:22 Why 9.5/10 follow-through makes this a high-probability trade

01:28 Daily squeeze + momentum reset above zero line

01:49 Weekly bullish divergent bar target: 435.43

02:41 Multi-timeframe squeeze alignment (daily/weekly/monthly)

02:44 Options trade setup: 435 broken wing butterfly

03:39 “Forgiveness factor” explained (profit even if it rips)

04:32 Risk management + why she accepts full capital risk

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