WTI & Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis - Elliott Wave Update
Why It Matters
Understanding whether crude is still in Wave 4 or nearing a breakout helps traders calibrate risk and avoid premature long positions in a market that may remain corrective.
Key Takeaways
- •WTI and Brent remain in a prolonged sideways corrective range.
- •Analyst identifies current pattern as potential Wave 4 of Elliott wave cycle.
- •Two triangle scenarios outlined: blue count breakout vs. standard corrective triangle.
- •Breakout above $99.33‑$118.13 resistance needed for bullish move.
- •Likelihood of breakout low; market shows no sign of ending correction.
Summary
The video provides an Elliott Wave‑focused technical update on WTI and Brent crude, emphasizing that both benchmarks are trapped in a prolonged sideways corrective range. The analyst argues the pattern likely represents Wave 4 of a larger impulse, with micro‑structures still respecting prior support and resistance.
Two possible triangle configurations are discussed. The “blue count” suggests a direct, rapid breakout to the upside if price clears the $99.33‑$118.13 resistance band and then the $110.96 green line. Conversely, a more traditional ABCDE corrective triangle would produce a slower, less certain move.
The presenter notes that the recent rally from the May 6 low resembles a three‑wave advance within a correction, and that if a triangle completes, breakouts tend to be swift. However, he stresses that market momentum has not yet signaled the end of the pullback, making an immediate bullish breakout unlikely.
For traders, the analysis implies caution: monitor the $99.33‑$118.13 zone closely, but do not assume a breakout until clear confirmation appears. The prevailing corrective bias suggests limited upside potential in the near term, affecting positioning and risk management strategies.
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